Venom: The Last Dance releases in US theaters on October 25 and is slated to be the third and final entry in the Tom Hardy-led movie series. Following the massive failure of Joker: Folie à Deux, the focus has shifted toward another tentpole feature based on comic books. However, if the current trends hold, Venom 3 could have the lowest box office opening in the entire franchise.
Venom 3’s box office tracking suggests $70 million opening
Venom: The Last Dance is tracking to make $70 million on its debut in the domestic box office. This is lower than what the previous two movies earned in their opening box-office weekends. While 2018’s Venom made $80.2 million, 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage accumulated $90 million.
According to a Variety report, Venom 3 had a production budget that was not significantly more than what was spent developing the second movie ($110 million). The production budget for the first one was also within that range: $100–116 million. Venom went on to make $856.1 million at the global box office. However, the commercial response to the second one was somewhat subdued in comparison. It earned $506.9 million but is still regarded as a hit.
The general belief is that studios spend as much on promoting a movie as on making it. Accordingly, Venom 3’s total budget could potentially be a little over $220 million. The movie has to make significantly more than that to become profitable as the theater chains take around 40-60% of every dollar earned.
Due to the disastrous outing of Joker: Folie à Deux, Venom 3 has very little competition on its opening weekend. The horror flick Terrifier 3 has enjoyed a successful opening weekend after debuting on October 11. It earned $18.9 million against its $2 million production budget. Yet, that’s nowhere near the box-office projections for Venom 3. The only other movie coming out on October 25 is the critically-acclaimed Conclave. Although, it is unlikely that either will be any competition for the comic-book behemoth.
If the projection turns out to be accurate, Venom 3 will have 2024’s most successful box-office opening for a movie based on a comic book. This follows Deadpool & Wolverine, which earned $211.4 million in the U.S. and Canada.
